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Press release on the results sociological research — September 2008 2008

 

The SOCIS Centre for social and marketing research on 30.08.2008 – 08.09.2008 conducted a national sociological research about the perception of current political situation by the population.

On the whole, 2040 interviews were taken all over Ukraine which represent adult population of the country (over 18 years old) by gender and age. The poll was taken in 24 regions (oblast), as well as in the Crimean Autonomous Republic and Kyiv. The method of collecting information is face-to-face interview at respondent's home.
Party ratings

If parliamentary election would take place the next Sunday, most votes would go to Bloc of Yulia Tymoshenko (24.5% of all votes) and Party of Regions (23.9%). Three percent threshold would also be exceeded by Communist Party of Ukraine (4.4%), “Our Ukraine” (4.2%), Bloc of Lytvyn (3.7%) of all voters correspondingly.

If parliamentary election would take place the next Sunday, and only the following parties (blocs) would participate, which party would you vote for?


% of all respondents

Bloc of Lytvyn (V.Lytvyn)

3,7


Bloc of Yulia Tymoshenko (Yu.Tymoshenko)

24,5


All-Ukrainian alliance 'Svoboda' ('Freedom') (O.Tyahnybok)

1,4


“Yediniy Centr” (“Single Centre”) (V.Baloga, I.Kril)

0,1


Communist Party of Ukraine (P.Symonenko)

4,4


'Narodna Samooborona' ('People's Self-Defence') (Yu.Lucenko)

1,2


'Our Ukraine' (V.Kyrylenko)

4,2


Party of Regions (V.Yanukovich)

23,9


Progressive Socialist Party of Ukraine (N.Vitrenko)

0,9


Socialist Party of Ukraine (O.Moroz)

0,6


Would vote for another party

0,4


Would not vote for any\ Against all

8,3


WOULD NOT PARTICIPATE

16,1


HARD TO REPLY

10,2


Altogether

100






Presidential ratings

If presidential election would take place the next Sunday, Yulia Tymoshenko (26% of all voters) and Victor Yanukovich (25.1%) would receive most votes in the first tour and go for run-off. The rating of president in office is 6.5% of all voters.

If the election of President of Ukraine would take place the next Sunday, and only the following candidates would run, who would you personally vote for?


% of all respondents

Natalia Vitrenko1,3
Anatoliy Hrycenko0,4
Volodymyr Lytvyn4,9
Petro Symonenko4,3
Yulia Tymoshenko26
Oleg Tyahnybok0,9
Victor Yushchenko6,5
Victor Yanukovich25,1
Arseniy Yacenyuk2,6
Another0,9
Would not vote for any\ Against all7,9
WOULD NOT PARTICIPATE11
HARD TO REPLY8,1
Altogether100

If Yu.Tymoshenko and V.Yanukovych would go for run-off, the prime minister in office would receive 34.6% of all voters, opposition leader 32.7% of all voters.

Who would you vote for in the run-off of presidential election if Tymoshenko and Yanukovich would run?


% of all respondents

Yulia Tymoshenko34,6
Victor Yanukovich32,7
Against both15,9
WOULD NOT PARTICIPATE10,1
HARD TO REPLY6,7
Altogether100

If Victor Yushchenko and Yulia Tymoshenko would go for run-off, the BYUT leader would receive most, 34% of all voters while head of state now in office would only get the support of 9.3% of all voters.

Who would you vote for in the run-off of presidential election if Yushchenko and Tymoshenko would run?


% of all respondents

Yulia Tymoshenko34
Victor Yushchenko9,3
Against both36
WOULD NOT PARTICIPATE12
HARD TO REPLY8,7
Altogether100

In case Victor Yushchenko and Victor Tymoshenko go for run-off, the leader of Party of Regions would win. His run-off rating is 35.4% of all voters while the Presidents rating is 18.6% of all respondents.

Who would you vote for in the run-off of presidential election if Yushchenko and Yanukovich would run?


% of all respondents
Victor Yushchenko18,6
Victor Yanukovich35,3
Against both28,6
WOULD NOT PARTICIPATE10,4
HARD TO REPLY7,1
Altogether100

In the opinion of almost 36% of Ukrainians, if the election of President of Ukraine would take place the next Sunday then Yu.Tymoshenko would win. About 24% believe that Victor Yanukovich would win the election; about 5%, that it would be Victor Yushchenko.

If presidential election would take place the next Sunday who do you think would be the winner?

Yulia Tymoshenko35,6
Victor Yushchenko5
Victor Yanukovich24,3
Another candidate2,5
NO ONE7,4
HARD TO REPLY25,3
Altogether100

At the same time, only 15% of Ukrainians think that Victor Yushchenko would run for a second term during future presidential election, while 72% endorse that he should not do this.

In your opinion, should Victor Yushchenko run for a second term during future presidential election (regardless of when they take place), or is it better that he does not participate?

Yushchenko should run for a second term15
Yushchenko should not run for a second term72,2
HARD TO REPLY12,8
Altogether100

In case Victor Yushenko does decide to run for a second term, Yulia Tymoshenko, in the opinion of 56% of Ukrainians, should compete him and run as well. About 9% believe that Tymoshenko should support Yushchenko and that she herself should not run.

Assume that Victor Yushchenko decides to run for a second term. In your opinion, should Yulia Tymoshenko, in this case, compete him, or would it be more correct if she herself abstains from running and support his candidacy?

Tymoshenko has to support the candidacy of Yushchenko and not run herself
8,7
Tymoshenko herself should run
56,3
HARD TO REPLY
35
Altogether
100

Conflict between President and Prime Minister

54% of Ukrainians believe that Tymoshenko should stay at her office while only 25 % endorse that, because of the conflict between the camps of President and Prime Minister, Yulia Tymoshenko should resign from her office

As you probably know, there is an ongoing severe struggle between the camps of President V.Yushchenko and of prime minister Yu.Tymosheno. What do you think it is better for Tymoshenko to do?

Resign from her office of prime minister25,1
Stay in the office54,2
HARD TO REPLY20,7
Altogether100

Only 5% of respondents think that Victor Yushchenko fulfils his duties and thus they do not agree that he should be impeached and early presidential election should be held. Meanwhile, 30% of respondents believe that President in office should be impeached immediately and early presidential election should be scheduled. 48% believe that it does not make any sense because there is not so much time left until the next regular presidential election.

Lately, there has been frequent talk of the necessity to impeach the head of state and schedule an early presidential election. Do you agree with this idea?

Yes, president Yushchenko should be impeached immediately and early presidential election should be scheduled30,4
No, no use – regular presidential election will be held soon enough48,2
No, I disagree, president in office fulfils his duties completely5,1
HARD TO REPLY16,3
Altogether100

Only about 6% of Ukrainians believe that the accusations by Secretariat of the President that Yulia Tymoshenko's activity can be considered national treason are completely grounded, another 8% think that these accusations are rather grounded than not. At the same time, 32% endorse that they are completely ungrounded; another 21%, that they are rather ungrounded. For 39% of respondents, it is hard to answer this question.

Secretariat of the President accused prime minister Yulia Tymoshenko that her activity can be considered national treason; do you find these accusations grounded?

I think they are completely grounded5,8
I think they are rather grounded than not8,3
I think they are rather ungrounded than grounded20,9
I think they are completely ungrounded32,2
Hard to reply whether they are grounded or not38,6
Altogether100

Attitude towards possible coalition configurations

Possible coalition of NUNS and Party of Regions

Only 7% of Ukrainians endorse the opinion that the coalition between “Our Ukraine” and Party of Regions is a way to achieve political stability and unite West and East of the country. About 15% think that it is a forced political alliance necessary to overcome crisis, 36% believe that this political alliance has no prospects to lead the country out of crisis, another 17% think that it is a treason of voters and national interests of Ukraine.

In your opinion, the coalition of “Our Ukraine” bloc and Party of Regions is...?


%
A way to achieve political stability and unite East and West of the country7,2
A forced political alliance to overcome crisis15
A political alliance with no prospects which cannot lead the country out of crisis36,4
A treason of voters and national interests of Ukraine17,3
HARD TO REPLY24,1
Altogether100

Possible coalition of BYUT and Party of regions

At the same time, about 31% of respondents endorse the opinion that possible coalition of BYUT and Party of Regions is a forced political alliance necessary to overcome crisis; another 14%, that it is a way to achieve political stability and unite West and East of the country.

In your opinion, the coalition of BYUT and Party of Regions is...?

A way to achieve political stability and unite East and West of the country13,8
A forced political alliance to overcome crisis30,9
A political alliance with no prospects which cannot lead the country out of crisis22,4
A treason of voters and national interests of Ukraine14,6
HARD TO REPLY18,3
Altogether100

In the present situation when “Our Ukraine” left the coalition, 25% of Ukrainians believe that Yu.Tymoshenko and her political force should make a coalition with the Party of Regions, around 17% think that she should go for an early parliamentary election, 7% believe that V.Yushchenko and his political force should be allowed to create a coalotion with Yanukovich while Tymoshenko herself should go in opposition and prepare for the presidential election; around 51% of respondents found it hard to answer the question. Calculating the received data for those who do have a position, 51% of respondents believe that Yu.Tymoshenko and her political force should create a coalition with Party of Regions; around 34%, that she should go for an early parliamentary election; 15%, that she should let V.Yushchenko and his political force create a coalition with Yanukovich while she herself should go into opposition and prepare for presidential election.

In case Victor Yushchenko and “Our Ukraine-People's Self-Defence” leave the coalition, what action would you advise to Yulia Tymoshenko?


%
Go for an early parliamentary election16,7
Create a coalition with Party of Regions and Yanukovich25,2
Let V.Yushchenko create a coalition with Yanukovich and go in opposition and prepare for presidential election7,4
HARD TO REPLY50,7
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